malcontentist

global affairs

Will Britain default?

by malcontent on Jan.21, 2009, under finance & economics, global affairs, politics

We interrupt the week of Obamamania to return to the pressing issue of the financial crisis.  Despite the hope resounding amid inaugural parties and balls, the rest of the world has gotten on with the business of economic meltdown.

I try not to be an alarmist, but it’s difficult to read so many respected and experienced financial columnists and experts today and not feel a bit, well… alarmed.  The question of the day is this:  can Britain - which has guaranteed its banks’ liabilities - survive debt default on a scale that now looks very likely?  Here are some highlights from Telegraph financial reporter Ambrose Evans-Pritchard from his blog post “SERIOUSLY ALARMED”:

* The slide in the value of the sterling has turned “disorderly”.  It fell 5 cents to 1.39 against the dollar yesterday.  This tests a key support level last seen in 2001 and 1992.

* UK banks have amassed $4.4 trillion in liabilities.  This is twice the size of the British economy and dwarfs its foreign reserves.  Of course there are assets to offset these liabilities, but we all know what forced asset sales do to asset prices.

* The budget deficit at the top of the cycle (i.e. during the height of the boom) was 3 percent of GDP.  If you can’t surplus during a boom, you are seriously mismanaging your finances.

Also today, perpetual doom-monger Nouriel Roubini is predicting that losses in the US will reach $3.6 trillionCalculated Risk disputes his numbers, but even its own revisions are huge numbers that will wreak havoc on our economy for years to come.

I can’t even begin to prescribe a solution for this mess.  What I’m sure of is that it will get worse before it gets better, and that living through it has changed the way I will approach personal finance for the rest of my life.

creditcrunch

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